2014 is the
likely to be the worst year, in many ways, since South Africa became a
democracy. The economy, too put it mildly, does not look good and there is much
discontent with the President, Mr Jacob Zuma, if not with politics in general. Yet
it is highly unlikely that the ruling party will be toppled or will lose too
many votes.
The fiasco around
the merger of Agang and the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the DA’s initial publicising of its presidential
candidate did these parties no good and indeed did South African politics no
good. The reality is that such a merger was not going to garner too many new votes
from the black electorate. The liberal white voter thought that this was a good
move to get someone like Dr Ramphele into the DA set-up. This is not uncommon
for liberals to think in a way to always protect themselves and their base
while supposedly being welcoming of others. To be truly meaningful to their
aspirations and be part of a real solution, white liberals will have to move
beyond their “race”. This is the only way to create a truly non-racial platform
where the policies of the party attract people from a wide range of
backgrounds. The DA is generally seen as a “white” party which makes it extremely unlikely that they
will ever topple the ANC. For the latter to happen, another broad-based party
of strength has to emerge and then perhaps, if the DA survives, they can form
some form of coalition.
Considering
all of this, the only concern the leadership of the ANC has to maintain power
is the challenge from within, i.e. the ANC is likely to remain in power for
some time, but the leadership will change with the challenge from the various
factions that exist.
Mr Jacob Zuma
is not the popular choice for president of South Africa, but the voters will
give little indication of that later this year with general elections take
place. There is a level of politics that is not always easy to analyse because
like good strategists these things are kept tight, but one thing is for certain
that people within the ANC are plotting the downfall of JZ – how soon remains to
be seen but I would hazard a guess that he too is unlikely to serve a full
second term.
http://www.news24.com/Elections/News/SA-voters-to-make-their-mark-on-7-May-20140207
http://www.news24.com/Elections/News/SA-voters-to-make-their-mark-on-7-May-20140207
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